تعیین مطلوبیت رویشگاه سفید‌‌پلت (.Populus caspica Bornm) و مهمترین متغیر‌‌های اقلیمی تأثیر‌‌گذار بر پراکنش آن در جنگل‌‌های هیرکانی

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جنگل‌‌شناسی و اکولوژی جنگل، گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران

2 نویسنده مسئول، استادیار، گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه محیط‌زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیتمدرس، نور، ایران

4 دانشیار پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات منابع طبیعی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان مازندران، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، ساری، ایران

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم می‌‌تواند تهدیدی جدی برای گونه‌‌های مختلف بومی در جنگل‌‌های هیرکانی باشد. بااین‌حال، تاکنون پژوهشی در ارتباط با تعیین پیامد‌‌های تغییر اقلیم بر روند الگوهای پراکنش (Populus caspica Bornm.) انجام نشده است. در پژوهش پیش‌رو به‌منظور شناسایی ارتباط بین پراکنش سفیدپلت با متغیرهای اقلیمی و تعیین رویشگاه‌‌های مطلوب تحت شرایط اقلیم کنونی و آینده (سناریوی RCP 8.5 تا سال 2070) از تئوری آشیان بوم‌شناختی، نرم‌افزار MAXENT و نیز داده‌‌های حضور این گونه در سطح جنگل‌‌های هیرکانی استفاده شد. بر‌‌اساس ارزیابی سطح زیر منحنی ROC، ارزش زیاد شاخص AUC (993/0) نشان‌دهنده کارآمدی مدل مورد استفاده در تعیین رویشگاه بالقوه سفیدپلت بود. مهم‌ترین متغیر‌‌های مؤثر در تعیین رویشگاه این گونه شامل بارش در خشک‌‌ترین ماه سال، تغییرات دمای سالانه، میانگین دمای سالانه و هم‌‌دمایی بودند. همچنین، تحت شرایط اقلیم کنونی، مساحت مطلوبیت رویشگاه‌‌های این گونه در جنگل‌های هیرکانی 3/88317 کیلو‌‌متر مربع است و در 75/38 درصد از منطقه، پتانسیل خوبی برای حضور سفید‌‌پلت وجود دارد، درحالی‌که نتایج سناریو آینده (RCP 8.5) نشان‌دهنده کاهش 4/48 درصدی مساحت مطلوبیت رویشگاه این گونه نسبت به شرایط فعلی است. از نتایج این پژوهش می‌‌توان در راستای تصمیمات مدیریتی، برنامه‌‌ریزی‌‌های حفاظتی و اصلاحی با درنظر گرفتن اثر تغییر اقلیم بر مطلوبیت رویشگاه‌‌ها و پاسخ گونه به تغییر اقلیم استفاده کرد و راهبردهای حفاظتی سفیدپلت (در درون یا بیرون از رویشگاه) را تدوین کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the suitable habitat of Caspian poplar (Populus caspica Bornm.) and the most influential climatic variables on its potential distribution in the Hyrcanian forests, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sh. Alipour 1
  • Ziaedin Badehian 2
  • H. Yusefzadeh 3
  • K. Espahbodi 4
  • F. Asadi 4
1 Ph.D. Student of Silviculture and Forest Ecology, Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran
2 Corresponding author, Assistant Prof., Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran
3 Associate Prof., Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Science, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran
4 Associate Prof., Research Division of Natural Resources, Mazandaran Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Sari, Iran
چکیده [English]

     Climate change can be a major threat to the endemic species of the Hyrcanian forests. However, there have been almost no studies in terms of determining consequences of climate change on the distribution patterns of Populus caspica Bornm. In this study, ecological niche theory and MAXENT software as well as P. caspica presence data across the Hyrcanian forests of Iran were used to identify the relationships between species data to the climatic predictor variables under current and future (RCP 8.5) (2070) climate conditions. According to analysis of area under the ROC curve, the high value of AUC index (0.993) indicated the efficiency of the model in determining the potential habitat of P. caspica. Precipitation of driest month, temperature annual range, mean annual temperature, and isothermality were the most important bioclimatic variables in the determination of potential habitat for P. caspica. Moreover, our results demonstrated that the habitat suitability area of this species was 88317.3 km2 under current climate condition and 38.75% area was identified as a "good potential" level for the presence of P. caspica. Whereas under projected future climate (RCP 8.5), suitable areas would be decreased by 48.4% compared to the current condition. The results of this study can be applied in approaches management, conservation planning and reforestation by taking into account the effect of climate change on habitat suitability and species response to its changes and conservation strategies will be compiled for this species.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • conservation
  • endemic species
  • MAXENT model

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