حساسیت تولید اولیه خالص به تغییر اقلیم در ناحیه رویشی هیرکانی

نوع مقاله: علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه‌ جنگل‌داری ‌و ‌اقتصاد‌ جنگل‌، دانشکده‌ منابع ‌طبیعی،‌ دانشگاه ‌تهران‌، کرج‌، ایران

2 استاد، گروه‌ جنگل‌داری‌ و ‌اقتصاد‌ جنگل‌، دانشکده‌ منابع ‌طبیعی،‌ دانشگاه‌ تهران‌، کرج‌، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

4 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

5 دانشیار، گروه زمین‌شناسی و جغرافیا، دانشگاه جورجیای جنوبی، آمریکا

چکیده

تولید اولیه خالص (Net Primary Production, NPP) از شاخص‌‌های مهم ارزیابی توان تولید بوم‌سازگان‌‌ها است که به‌شدت تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم قرار دارد. پژوهش پیش‌رو با هدف بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر روند و حساسیت NPP در ناحیه رویش هیرکانی با استفاده از داده‌های طولانی‌مدت (31ساله) ایستگاه‌‌‌‌های هواشناسی گرگان، قائم‌شهر، بابلسر، نوشهر، رامسر، انزلی و آستارا، در بازه زمانی 1987 تا 2017 میلادی (1365 تا 1396) انجام شد. NPP با استفاده از مدل اقلیم‌مبنای سینتتیک برآورد شد و ارزیابی روند آن و نیز روند عوامل اقلیمی با استفاده از آزمون من- ‌‌کندال انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که میانگین دمای سالانه در تمام ایستگاه‌‌های مورد مطالعه، روندی افزایشی و معنی‌‌دار داشت، درحالی‌که روند بارندگی سالانه در هیچ‌یک از ایستگاه‌‌ها معنی‌‌دار نبود. میانگین سالانه NPPدر ناحیه رویشی هیرکانی 10/6 تن در هکتار در سال (انحراف معیار 1/91±) برآورد شد. بیشترین و کمترین مقدار NPP به‌ترتیب مربوط به ایستگاه‌‌های انزلی و گرگان بود که به‌ترتیب 13/42(انحراف معیار 1/38±) و 7/6 (انحراف معیار 1±) تن در هکتار در سال تخمین زده شد. مقدار NPP از شرق به غرب ناحیه هیرکانی تا ایستگاه انزلی به‌صورت افزایشی برآورد شد. ضریب حساسیت NPP نسبت به دما در کل ناحیه، 0/5 برآورد شد. این عدد نشان می‌‌دهد که در صورت افزایش دما به‌ مقدار تقریبی 0/6 درجه، NPPسالانه می‌‌تواند نزدیک به 0/2 تن در هکتار در سال ‌‌افزایش یابد. ‌‌نتایج این پژوهش می‌تواند در ‌‌برنامه‌‌ریزی برای استفاده از خدمات بوم‌سازگان‌‌ها ‌‌استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity of net primary production to climate change in the Hyrcanian region

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parisa Abbasian 1
  • Pedram Attarod 2
  • Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi 3
  • Javad Bazrafshan 4
  • JohnT. Van Stan 5
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Associate Prof., Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
4 Associate Prof., Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
5 Associate Prof., Department of Geology and Geography, Georgia Southern University, USA
چکیده [English]

 Net primary production (NPP) is an important indicator of ecosystem production potential, which is heavily affected by climate change. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of climate change on-trend and sensitivity of NPP in the Hyrcanian region of northern Iran using long-term (31 years, 1987-2017) meteorological data recorded in Gorgan, Ghaemshahr, Babolsar, Nowshahr, Ramsar, Bandar Anzali, and Astara synoptic stations. The synthetic climate-based model was used to estimate NPP and Mann-Kendal test was employed to test the trends of NPP and other meteorological parameters. We observed that the trends of annual temperature were statistically significant in all stations, whereas the annual precipitation trends were not statistically significant. The average annual NPP in the Hyrcanian region was found to be 10.6 t. ha-1 per year on average (SD: ±1.91), in which the maximum and minimum NPPs were corresponded to Bandar Anzali (13.42 t. ha-1 per year; SD: ±1.38) and Gorgan (7.6 t. ha-1 per year: SD: ±1) stations, respectively. The amount of NPP showed an increasing trend from the eastern to the western Hyrcanian region up to Bandar Anzali. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the NPP coefficient was estimated at 0.5 throughout the Hyrcanian region in response to changing temperature. This indicated that a 0.6 °C increase in temperature could approximately increase annual NPP by 0.2 t. ha-1 per year. Conclusively, understanding the temporal change of NPP in response to changing climate is necessary for the utilization of ecosystem services and benefits.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate-based model
  • Ecosystem
  • sensitivity coefficient
- Anderson, R.G. and Goulden, M.L., 2011. Relationships between climate, vegetation, and energy exchange across a montane gradient. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 116(G1): 16p.

- Attarod, P., Kheirkhah, F., Khalighi Sigaroodi, S., Sadeghi, S.M.M., Dolatshahi, A. and Bayramzadeh, V., 2017. Trend analysis of meteorological parameters and reference evapotranspiration in the Caspian region. Iranian Journal of Forest, 9(2): 171-185 (In Persian).

- Bonan, G.B., Levis, S., Sitch, S., Vertenstein, M. and Oleson, K.W., 2003. A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics. Global Change Biology, 9(11): 1543-1566.

- Davie, J.C.S., Falloon, P.D., Kahana, R., Dankers, R., Betts, R., Portmann, F.T., … and Arnell, N., 2013. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP. Earth System Dynamics, 4(2): 359-374.

- Euskirchen, E.S., McGuire, A.D., Chapin III, F.S., Yi, S. and Thompson, C.C., 2009. Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003–2100: implications for climate feedbacks. Ecological Applications, 19(4): 1022-1043.

- Field, C.B., Behrenfeld, M.J., Randerson, J.T. and Falkowski, P., 1998. Primary production of the biosphere: integrating terrestrial and oceanic components. Science, 281(5374): 237-240.

- Gang, C., Zhou, W., Li, J., Chen, Y., Mu, S., Ren, J., Chen, J. and Groisman, P.Y., 2013. Assessing the spatiotemporal variation in distribution, extent and NPP of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate change from 1911 to 2000. PloS One, 8(11): e80394.

- Hadiani, M.O., 2015. Uncertainty of climate change and synoptic Parameters and modeling the trends. Environmental Resources Research, 3(2): 179-190 (In Persian).

- He, Y.H., Tian, Y.L., Ye, D.M., Qin, J.Q. and Guo, L.S., 2005. Model of aboveground biomass of Nitraria tangutorum and relationship between biomass and leaf area. Journal of Desert Research, 25(4): 541-546.

- Jackson, R.B., Jobbágy, E.G., Avissar, R., Roy, S.B., Barrett, D.J., Cook, C.W., Farley, K.A., le Maitre, D.C., McCarl, B.A. and Murray, B.C., 2005. Trading water for carbon with biological carbon sequestration. Science, 310(5756): 1944-1947.

- Jahanbakhsh, S., Hadiani, M.O., Rezaie Banafsheh, M. and Dinpajouh, Y., 2010. Modeling the climate change's parameters in Mazandaran province. 4th International Congress of the Islamic Worlds Geographers. Zahedan, Iran, 14-16 Apr. 2010: 13p (In Persian).

 - Jiang, H., Apps, M.J., Zhang, Y., Peng, C. and Woodard, P.M., 1999. Modelling the spatial pattern of net primary productivity in Chinese forests. Ecological Modelling, 122(3): 275-288.

- Kang, S., Lee, D., Lee, J. and Running, S.W., 2006. Topographic and climatic controls on soil environments and net primary production in a rugged temperate hardwood forest in Korea. Ecological Research, 21(1): 64-74.

- Kendall, M.G., 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. 4th Edition, Griffin, London, 202p

- Mamassis, N., Panagoulia, D. and Novkovic, A., 2014. Sensitivity analysis of Penman evaporation method. Global NEST Journal, 16(4): 628-639.

- Mann, H.B., 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 13(3): 245-259.

- Melillo, J.M., Prentice, I.C., Farquhar, G.D., Schulze, E.D. and Sala, O.E., 1996. Terrestrial biotic responses to environmental change and feedbacks to climate: 445-482. In: Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K. (Eds.). Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 557p.

- Nemani, R.R., Keeling, C.D., Hashimoto, H., Jolly, W.M., Piper, S.C., Tucker, C.J., Myneni, R.B. and Running, S.W., 2003. Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Science, 300(5625): 1560-1563.

- Peters, G.P., Andrew, R.M., Boden, T., Canadell, J.G., Ciais, P., Le Quéré, C., Marland, G., Raupach, M.R. and Wilson, C., 2013. The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C. Nature Climate Change, 3(1): 4-6.

- Phillips, O.L., Aragão, L.E., Lewis, S.L., Fisher, J.B., Lloyd, J., López-González, G., … and Torres-Lezama, A., 2009. Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest. Science, 323(5919): 1344-1347.

- Piao, S., Nan, H., Huntingford, C., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S. and Chen, A., 2014. Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity. Nature Communications, 5: 5018.

- Ren, Z.C., Zhu, H.Z., Li, R. and Liu, X., 2010. Variation in vegetation net primary productivity and its response to climate in Buryatiya Republic, Russia. Resources Science, 32(10): 2018-2027.

- Seino, H. and Uchijima, Z., 1992. Global distribution of net primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 48(1): 39-48.

- Sun, G., Riekerk, H. and Kornhak, L.V., 2000. Ground-water-table rise after forest harvesting on cypress-pine flatwoods in Florida. Wetlands, 20(1): 101-112.

- Wang, X., Li, F., Gao, R., Luo, Y. and Liu, T., 2014. Predicted NPP spatiotemporal variations in a semiarid steppe watershed for historical and trending climates. Journal of Arid Environments, 104: 67-79.

- Zhang, G., Kang, Y., Han, G. and Sakurai, K., 2011. Effect of climate change over the past half century on the distribution, extent and NPP of ecosystems of Inner Mongolia. Global Change Biology, 17(1): 377-389.

- Zhou, G., Wang, Y., Jiang, Y. and Yang, Z., 2002. Estimating biomass and net primary production from forest inventory data: a case study of China’s Larix forests. Forest Ecology and Management, 169(1-2): 149-157.