مدل‌سازی میزان هدررفت منابع آب پس از قطع و خروج درختان از جنگل‌های هیرکانی

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسنده

دکتری جنگل‌داری، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

بحران کمبود آب و شدت تأثیرات پدیده النینو در چند سال اخیر، از مهمترین موضوعاتی است که باید مورد توجه قرار گیرد. هدف پژوهش پیش‌رو ارایه مدل‌های بهینه برای پایش بهینه تغییرات مقادیر آب ذخیره‌شده در درختان با توجه به اهمیت زیاد آن در روند چرخه آب و ایجاد کلیما در جنگل‌های آمیخته راش گلندرود نور بود. در سال 1390،پس از دیسک‌برداری به ‌ازای دو تا پنج متر طول تنه 174 درخت قطع‌شده، نمونه‌های چوبی با ابعاد ثابت تکه‌برداری شدند و در آون خشک شدند. پس از توزین تنه درختان در عرصه و تفاضل بین وزن تر و زی‌توده با احتساب ضریب خشکی محاسبه‌شده، مقادیر وزنی ذخایر آب اندازه‌گیری شد. برای مدل‌سازی متغیر پاسخ، از تحلیل خطی ساده، چندگانه و غیرخطی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل‌های خطی ساده و چندگانه، دقت برآوردی قابل قبولی برای پیش‌بینی تغییرات ذخایر آب زی‌توده تنه درختان نداشتند. برخلاف آن، مدل توانی، نمایی و منحنی S دارای دقت برآورد قابل ملاحظه بودند که با ارزیابی مدل‌ها، مدل توانی به‌عنوان بهترین مدل با قطعیت پیش‌بینی انتخاب شد. با توسعه مدل مذکور، درنهایت معادله بازنمایی تبدیلی لگاریتم مدل توانی به‌عنوان مدل بهینه نهایی برای برآورد ذخایر فعلی و پیش‌بینی تغییرات ذخایر آب تنه درختان برای سال‌های آینده مشخص شد. درواقع، میزان هدررفت کل ذخایر آب تنه درختان در ارتباط با چرخه آب پس از قطع و خروج از جنگل‌های مذکور با استفاده از مدل ارایه‌شده در مقیاس وسیع امکان‌پذیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling loss of water resources after cutting out trees in the Hyrcanian forest of Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • Ali Asghar Vahedi
Ph.D. Forestry, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The crisis of water shortage and the impact of El Nino in the past few years, are the most important issues that should be considered. The aim of this study was to introduce optimal models for monitoring water reserves in the trees with respect to water cycle in Glandrood mixed-beech forests, Noor. Therefore, after sampling of disks for 2- 5 meters of trunk length of 174 individuals, wood samples with fixed dimensions were oven-dried. After weighing each tree trunk in the field and difference between the wet mass and dry biomass considering the ratio of drought index, the whole water reserves were measured. To develop the models for predicting response variable, simple, multiple linear and nonlinear regression analysis were used. The results showed that simple and linear models had no considerable accuracy to predict the response variable. In contrast, power function, exponential and curve-models predicted the response variable with the high accuracy. Power function was the best model and that was developed to predict the water reserve value with the highest accuracy. Using this equation provides possibility for predicting the loss of water resource related to water cycle after cutting out the tress from the studied forests.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Allometric equations
  • El-Nino phenomenon
  • mixed-beech forests
  • water cycle

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