اثر معیار‌های مکانی بر ایجاد پتانسیل خطر آتش‌سوزی در جنگل‌های زاگرس

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جنگل‌داری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

2 دانشیار گروه جنگل‌داری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشیار گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

هرساله سطح زیادی از پوشش گیاهی موجود برروی زمین طعمه آتش­ سوزی می­شود. عامل­ های زیادی در عرصه­ های مختلف منابع طبیعی منطقه را برای ایجاد و گسترش آتش­ سوزی­ ها مستعد می­­ کنند. این عامل­ ها علاوه­ بر اینکه ماهیت متفاوتی دارند، میزان تأثیرشان نیز از منطقه­ ای به منطقه دیگر متفاوت است. پژوهش پیش­ رو با دو هدف تعیین میزان تأثیر معیارهای مکانی مختلف بر وقوع آتش ­سوزی و تعیین مناطق دارای پتانسیل خطر آتش‌سوزی با کمک روش تلفیقی فرآیند تحلیل سلسله­ مراتبی و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی در ناحیه رویشی زاگرس واقع در شمال استان خوزستان انجام شد. پس از آنالیز نقشه­ های پایه، نقشه ­های نمایه معیارها ایجاد شدند و مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند. تجزیه و تحلیل نقشه­­ های نمایه توپوگرافی، نمایه کاربری، نمایه اقلیمی، نمایه زیستگاه­های حساس و نقشه­ های نمایه پوشش گیاهی (سوخت) نشان داد که به­ ترتیب 15/55، 59/53، 10/75، 20/6 و 35/7 درصد از سطح کل منطقه مورد مطالعه در محدوده با پتانسیل خطر آتش ­سوزی خیلی زیاد و خطر زیاد قرار دارد. نتایج تجزیه ‌و تحلیل نقشه پتانسیل خطر آتش­ سوزی نشان داد که 8/64 درصد از کل منطقه در محدوده خطر آتش­ سوزی بسیار زیاد قرار دارد. نتایج صحت ­سنجی نیز نشان داد که 9/6 درصد از مناطق سوخته ­شده در محدوده با خطر بسیار زیاد و 67/3 درصد در محدوده با خطر زیاد قرار دارند، بنابراین نتایج پژوهش پیش ­رو نشان می­ دهد که ترکیبی از فرآیند تحلیل سلسله­ مراتبی و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی می­ تواند برای تعیین مناطق دارای پتانسیل آتش­ سوزی کارآمد باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial indicators effects on the forest fire potential in Zagros region

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sajjad Aleemahmoodi Sarab 1
  • Jahangir Feghhi 2
  • Afshin Danehkar 3
  • Pedram Atarod 2
1 Ph. D. Student, Faculty of Natural Resources, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences ‎and Natural Resources,Gorgan, Iran
2 Associate Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Associate Prof., Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran ‎
چکیده [English]

    Forest fires frequently cause disturbances in vegetation cover worldwide. The aim of this study was to 1) assess the effects of spatial indicators on forest fire ignition and 2) to map the susceptibility to forest fires using Analectic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Geographical Information System (GIS) in a portion of southern Zagros forests in Khuzestan province. Analysis of topography, land use, climate, habitat sensitivity as well as fuel index maps showed that 15.6, 59.5, 10.7, 20.6, and 35.7 percentages of the area is of very high to high potentials for forest fire ignition, respectively. Furthermore, the fire risk map indicated 8.6 % of this region to be very highly prone to wildfire. The results of cross-validation revealed that 9.6 and 67.3 percentages of the previous forest fires occurred in classes featuring very high and high fire vulnerability. In addition, GIS and AHP method were found to offer appropriate and efficient tools for management and mapping of forest fires in the Zagros forests of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • forest fire
  • AHP
  • Zagros forests
  • GIS

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