ارزیابی عملکرد رویکردهای مدل‌سازی گسترش آتش‌سوزی جنگل با استفاده از اتوماتای سلولی (پژوهش موردی: جنگل‌های بخش لاکان شهرستان رشت)

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی سیستم‌های اطلاعات مکانی، دانشکده‌ نقشه‌برداری دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی سیستم‌های اطلاعات مکانی، دانشکده‌ نقشه‌برداری دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی

چکیده

پیش‌بینی صحیح گسترش آتش‌سوزی جنگلی موضوعی حیاتی در کاهش اثرات مخرب ناشی از آن است. آتش‌سوزی جنگل به عامل‌های متعددی ازجمله توپوگرافی، پوشش گیاهی و اقلیم بستگی دارد. در حال حاضر یکی از چالش‌های موجود در مدل‌سازی آتش‌سوزی جنگلی نحوه‌ ارتباط آن با مشخصه‌های ایستا و پویای مکانی و زمانی مؤثر بر گسترش آتش‌سوزی ازجمله سرعت و جهت باد است. در این پژوهش، سه رویکرد مطرح در مدل‌سازی این پارامترها شامل کارافیلیدیس (Karafyllidis)، برجاک (Berjak) و پروجیاس (Progias) بررسی و تحلیل شدند و اهمیت پارامترهای اندازه‌ پیکسل و گام‌های زمانی تغییر وضعیت در اتوماتای سلولی مورد توجه قرار گرفت. منطقه‌ موردمطالعه، محدوده‌ای از جنگل‌های بخش لاکان شهرستان رشت بود. ابتدا داده‌های توپوگرافی، پوشش گیاهی، سرعت و جهت باد جمع‌آوری و در محیط GIS آماده‌سازی شدند. سپس سه رویکرد مطرح در منطقه‌ موردمطالعه پیاده‌سازی شدند و با انجام آنالیز حساسیت مربوط به پارامترهای اندازه‌ پیکسل و بازه‌های زمانی، میزان کارایی هر یک از طریق مقایسه‌ جبهه‌ آتش شبیه‌سازی ‌شده با واقعیت و از طریق محاسبه‌ ضریب کاپا، مورد ارزیابی و مقایسه قرار گرفت. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده حاکی از آن بود که روش برجاک با طول ضلع پیکسل سه تا هفت متر برای مدل‌سازی گسترش آتش در مناطق جنگلی استان گیلان مناسب است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation performances of different forest fire spread models using cellular automata (case study: The forests of Lakan district in Rasht)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Tahereh Ghaemi Rad 1
  • Mohammad Karimi 2
1 M.Sc. Student of GIS Engineering, Department of GIS Engineering, Faculty of Geomatics Engineering, K.N.Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Prof., Department of GIS Engineering, Faculty of Geomatics Engineering, K.N.Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Accurate prediction of forest fire spread is crucial in minimizing its destructive effects. Forest fire depends on various factors e.g. topography, vegetation and climate. One of the challenges in modeling forest fire concerns the way it interacts with static and dynamic spatiotemporal trajectories affecting its spread such as slope, wind speed and wind direction. In this study, three previously developed approaches Karafyllidis, Berjak and Progias for modeling those parameters were analyzed, followed by investigating the effects of pixel size and time steps in a cellular automata. The study was conducted in the Lakan forest district in the vicinity of Rasht in Guilan province. The available topographic, vegetation, wind speed and wind direction data were initially analyzed in GIS. Then the three modeling approaches were implemented, followed by a consequent sensitivity analysis on the pixel size and time steps of switching in cellular automata, The effectiveness of the approaches was compared by means of Kappa coefficient .The results indicate that the Berjak method with a 3-7 m pixel size is more appropriate for modeling the spread of fire across the study site.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • forest fire
  • pixel size
  • Cellular Automata
  • time steps
  • dynamic spatiotemporal parameters

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