پیش‌‌بینی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش پلت (.Acer velutinum Boiss) با استفاده از مدل‌‌‌‌های پراکنش گونه‌‌ای در جنگلهای هیرکانی

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

2 نویسنده مسئول، استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی جنگل، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

3 استاد، گروه علوم و مهندسی جنگل، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

4 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری

5 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی جنگل، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: به‌منظور کاهش جنگل‌‌زدایی و تخریب جنگل‌‌های طبیعی، احیا و توسعه جنگل‌‌ها از طریق جنگل‌‌کاری در جهان به‌سرعت در حال افزایش است. به‌نظر می‌رسد که یکی از راه‌حل‌های احیای جنگل‌‌های مخروبه هیرکانی در ایران استفاده از گونه‌‌های بومی باشد. پلت (Acer velutinum Boiss.) به‌عنوان یکی از گونه‌‌های بومی در این جنگل‌‌ها، از فراوان‌‌ترین و بلندترین افراهای ایران محسوب می‌شود. این گونه ازنظر کمی و کیفی، نقش مهمی در جنگل‌‌های هیرکانی ایفا می‌کند و در برنامه‌های جنگل‌‌کاری به‌‌طور خالص یا آمیخته با گونه‌‌های بومی دیگر در این منطقه، مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. کسب اطلاعات در خصوص رویشگاه‌های مناسب فعلی و آینده آن به‌منظور اطمینان از موفقیت جنگل‌‌کاری به‌‌ویژه تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم، لازم و ضروری است. ازاین‌‌رو، پژوهش پیش‌رو به‌منظور مدل‌‌سازی و شناسایی مناسب رویشگاه پلت در جنگل‌‌های هیرکانی انجام شد.
مواد و روش‌‌ها: این پژوهش در کل سطح جنگل‌‌های هیرکانی در سه استان گیلان، مازندران و گلستان و با هدف تعیین رویشگاه مطلوبِ پلت برای احیای جنگل با استفاده از سه روش‌‌ مختلف مدل‌‌سازی شامل: جنگل تصادفی (RF)، ماشین بردار پشتیبان (SVM) و بیشینه آنتروپی (MaxEnt) انجام گرفت. برای بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش پلت، متغیرهای زیست‌‌اقلیمی با تفکیک فضایی یک کیلومتر موجود در پایگاه داده‌‌های Worldclim تا سال 2100 استفاده شد. متغیرهای زیست‌‌اقلیمی آینده با استفاده از مدل گردش عمومی جو (MPI-ESM1-2-HR) تحت چهار سناریوی SSP 126، SSP 245، SSP 370 و SSP 585 تا سال 2100 میلادی استخراج شد. الگوریتم‌های مدل‌سازی و اهمیت نسبی متغیرها در بسته caret در نرم‌افزار R پیاده‌سازی و محاسبه شدند. همچنین برای پیش‌‌بینی حضور/غیاب به‌منظور ارزیابی دقت در هریک از روش‌‌های مدل‌‌سازی مورد استفاده در برآورد حضور گونه از آماره‌‌های کاپا، سطح زیر منحنی و صحت استفاده شد.
نتایج: مدل RF به‌علت مقادیر زیادِ شاخص‌‌های ارزیابی در پیش‌‌بینی رویشگاه مطلوب پلت، بهترین عملکرد را نسبت به مدل‌‌های دیگر داشت (مقدار سطح زیر منحنی 9/0). نتایج ارزیابی اهمیت نسبی متغیرها با استفاده از مدل RF و MaxEnt نشان داد که متغیرهای ایزوترمالیتی و تغییرات فصلی دما به‌ترتیب بیشترین تأثیر را بر پراکندگی پلت داشتند. براساس مدل SVM نیز بیشترین تأثیر متعلق به متغیرهای بارندگی در خشک‌‌ترین ماه و تغییرات فصلی دما بود. پیش‌بینی تغییرات رویشگاه مطلوب پلت با استفاده از مدل RF در جنگل‌های هیرکانی تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم آینده تا سال 2100 نشان داد که در خوش‌بینانه‌‌‌ترین حالت (SSP 126)، رویشگاه مناسب پلت در بخش مرکزی جنگل‌‌های هیرکانی، تغییر معنی‌داری نخواهد کرد، اما این گونه 43 درصد از رویشگاه مطلوب خود را در قسمت‌های شرق و غرب جنگل‌‌های مذکور از دست خواهد داد. همچنین، در بدبینانه‌‌ترین حالت (SSP 585) فقط بخش‌‌ اندکی از استان مازندران در مرکز این جنگل‌‌ها و قسمت‌‌هایی در غرب این استان، رویشگاه مناسب این گونه باقی خواهد ماند و 33 درصد از رویشگاه مطلوب این گونه تا سال 2100 میلادی از بین خواهد رفت. ازآنجایی‌‌که سناریو SSP 126 خوش‌بینانه‌ترین حالت است، شرایط آینده‌ منطقه را با کاهش کمترِ سطح رویشگاه مناسب گونه نسبت به حال حاضر پیش‌‌بینی کرده است. نتایج مدل MaxEnt نشان داد که در سناریوهای SSP 370 و SSP 585 هیچ منطقه‌‌ای برای حضور پلت تا سال ۲۱۰۰ مناسب نخواهد بود.
نتیجه‌‌گیری کلی: طبق نتایج این پژوهش، مدل RF پیش‌‌بینی بهتری از حضور پلت در جنگل‌‌های هیرکانی در آینده ارائه داد. به‌‌طورکلی براساس همه مدل‌‌ها و سناریوهای مورد مطالعه، سطح وسیعی از رویشگاه مطلوب پلت از بین خواهد رفت. بیشترین آن‌ها در مناطق شرقی و غربی جنگل‌‌های هیرکانی متمرکز است. به‌علاوه، نقشه‌‌های ترسیمیِ مطلوبیت رویشگاه می‌تواند به‌عنوان مبنایی برای طرح‌‌های احیایی جنگل‌‌ها به‌‌ویژه در مناطق با تخریب بیشتر استفاده شود. مدل RF نقش مهمی در پیشنهاد این گونه برای عملیات احیا و توسعه پایدار بوم‌سازگان‌‌‌های جنگلی دارد و می‌‌تواند منبعی برای مدیران در امر برنامه‌‌ریزی حفاظت و احیای جنگل‌‌های تخریب‌‌شده در منطقه مورد بررسی باشد.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of .Acer velutinum Boiss using species distribution models in the Hyrcanian forests, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Khadijeh Asghari 1
  • Hamed Asadi 2
  • Hamid Jalilvand 3
  • Seyed Mohammad Hojjati 4
  • Mahya Tafazoli 5
1 Ph.D. Student, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
2 Corresponding author, Assistant Prof., Department of Forest Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
3 Prof., Department of Forest Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
4 Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
5 Assistant Prof., Department of Forest Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
چکیده [English]

Background and Objectives: To reduce deforestation and the degradation of natural forests, reforestation and afforestation projects are rapidly expanding worldwide. In northern Iran, the use of native species has been suggested as an effective approach for restoring degraded forests. Acer velutinum Boiss., one of the tallest and most abundant maple species in the Hyrcanian forests, plays an important ecological role in terms of both quantity and quality. It has been widely applied in afforestation programs, either as pure stands or in mixture with other native species. Understanding its current and future suitable habitats is therefore essential for the success of restoration projects, especially under the increasing pressure of climate change. The present study aimed to model and identify suitable habitats for A. velutinum in the Hyrcanian forests.
Methodology: The study was conducted across the entire Hyrcanian forest region in Iran, covering Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan provinces. Three species distribution modeling approaches were employed: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). Bioclimatic variables at 1 km spatial resolution were obtained from the WorldClim database. Future climate variables were derived from the MPI-ESM1-2-HR general circulation model under four scenarios (SSP 126, SSP 245, SSP 370 and SSP 585) up to the year 2100. Modeling algorithms and variable importance were implemented in the caret package in R. Model performance was evaluated using Kappa statistics, area under the curve (AUC), and accuracy.
Results: The RF model outperformed the others, achieving the highest accuracy in predicting suitable habitats for A. velutinum (AUC = 0.9). Variable importance analysis indicated that isothermality and temperature seasonality were the most influential predictors in the RF and MaxEnt models, while precipitation of the driest month and temperature seasonality were the most important variables in the SVM model. According to RF projections, under the most optimistic scenario (SSP 126), suitable habitats in the central parts of the Hyrcanian forests will remain largely stable, but the species is expected to lose about 43% of its suitable habitat in the eastern and western regions. Under the most pessimistic scenario (SSP 585), only limited areas in central and western Mazandaran province will remain suitable, with 33% habitat loss by 2100. Furthermore, the MaxEnt model predicted that under SSP 370 and SSP 585 scenarios, no suitable habitat will remain for the species by 2100.
Conclusion: The RF model provided the most reliable predictions of A. velutinum distribution under future climate change. Overall, all models and scenarios indicated substantial habitat loss, especially in the eastern and western regions of the Hyrcanian forests. The habitat suitability maps generated in this study provide a valuable basis for forest restoration planning, particularly in highly degraded areas. The RF model highlights the importance of this species in restoration efforts and supports its use in sustainable forest ecosystem management, offering a reliable reference for managers in conservation and reforestation planning.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change scenarios
  • Hyrcanian forests
  • maximum entropy model
  • random forest model
  • suitable habitat

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