شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر اجرای طرح‌‌های جنگل‌داری در زاگرس با رویکرد آینده‌‌پژوهی (مطالعه موردی: استان چهارمحال و بختیاری)

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جنگل‌داری، گروه علوم جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

2 نویسنده مسئول، دانشیار، گروه علوم جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه علوم جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

4 مربی، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

10.22092/ijfpr.2023.363630.2119

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: آینده‌پژوهی، یک دانش مهم و ضروری است که می‌تواند به ایجاد آینده‌ای بهتر برای جامعه کمک کند. در پژوهش پیش‌رو، عوامل مؤثر بر طرح‌های جنگل‌داری در زاگرس مرکزی با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی بررسی شد. این پژوهش، جنبه کاربردی دارد و از رویکردهای تحلیلی و تکنیک‌های اکتشافی استفاده می‌کند. افق مورد نظر در این پژوهش، یک دوره 25 ساله در نظر گرفته شد.
مواد و روش‌‌ها: پژوهش پیش‌رو در جنگل‌‌های زاگرس مرکزی و به صورت مطالعه موردی در استان چهارمحال و بختیاری انجام شد. روش گردآوری داده‌‌ها شامل تحلیل اسنادی و استفاده از پرسش‌نامه بود. به این منظور ابتدا در راستای گردآوری اطلاعات مورد نظر از اسناد و دستورالعمل پایش و ارزشیابی طرح‌های مدیریت منابع طبیعی استفاده شد. پس‌ازآن، مجموعه‌ای از عوامل مؤثر بر اجرای طرح‌های جنگل‌داری شناسایی شدند. سپس از طریق مصاحبه با متخصصان حوزه جنگل (دانشگاهی و کارشناسان خبره) از مجموعه عوامل مذکور (68 عامل)، 18 عامل مؤثر انتخاب شد. این عوامل به‌ شکل ماتریس اثرات متقابل در اختیار 15 نفر از افراد خبره با بیشتر از 10 سال تجربه در اجرای طرح‌های جنگل‌داری در زاگرس مرکزی، ازجمله کارشناسان اداره منابع طبیعی و آبخیزداری استان چهارمحال و بختیاری، کارشناسان دفتر جنگل‌های خارج از شمال در سازمان منابع طبیعی و آبخیزداری کشور و استادان دانشگاهی گروه علوم جنگل در دانشگاه شهرکرد که با روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمند انتخاب شدند، قرار گرفت. سطح ارتباط میان متغیرها برمبنای تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری از صفر تا سه امتیازدهی شد. پس از میانگین‌‌گیری از امتیازها، آن‌ها به شکل یک ماتریس متقابل وارد نرم‌‌افزار میک‌مک شدند.
نتایج: براساس نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، درجه پرشدگی ماتریس 19/89 درصد بود که نشان می‌دهد متغیرهای انتخاب‌شده، تأثیر بسیار زیاد و متنوعی بر یکدیگر گذاشتند و درنتیجه، سیستم در وضعیت ناپایداری قرار گرفته است. از مجموع 324 رابطه، 35 رابطه، اثرگذاری صفر داشت که نشان می‌دهد متغیرها، تأثیر متقابل بر یکدیگر نداشتند. 82 رابطه با اثرگذاری اندک، 132 رابطه، تأثیر میانه و 75 رابطه دارای تأثیر زیاد بودند. نتیجه تحلیل ماتریس اثرات مستقیم نشان می‌‌دهد که هماهنگی مسئولان با مردم محلی و استفاده از گونه‌های پیشگام، جزء عوامل تنظیم‌‌کننده هستند، درحالی‌که عملیات احیا، عملیات پرورشی، زراعت زیراشکوب، چرای دام و شناسایی بهره‌‌برداران محلی در زمره عوامل مستقل قرار گرفتند. عوامل مؤثر انتخاب‌شده به چهار مؤلفه اقتصادی، اجتماعی، جنگل‌شناختی و مدیریتی دسته‌بندی شدند. براساس تحلیل اثرات مستقیم، عوامل مؤثر بر اجرای طرح‌های جنگل‌داری شامل درآمد، تأمین معیشت، شغل، حفاظت مردمی، اعتماد مردم به مسئولان، استفاده از محصولات غیرچوبی، توانمندسازی جوامع محلی، مشارکت مردم محلی، خدمات تولیدی و توسعه‌یافتگی منطقه هستند. عامل مشارکت بر توسعه‌‌یافتگی و اعتماد مردم به مسئولان، اثر بسیار قوی دارد. عامل مشارکت مردم محلی بر توانمندسازی  و عامل توسعه یافتگی بر معیشت اثر قوی دارد.
نتیجه‌‌گیری کلی: مهم‌ترین مشکل در اجرای طرح‌های جنگل‌داری زاگرس، مسائل اقتصادی- اجتماعی است. زیرا اجرای این طرح‌ها ازنظر اقتصادی برای جنگل‌نشینان منافعی ندارد. موفقیت یا عدم موفقیت فعالیت‌های مرتبط با اجرای طرح‌های جنگل‌داری در هر منطقه‌ای در گروی سطح اقتصادی جوامع محلی، سطح اعتماد جوامع محلی به مسئولان و مشارکت یا عدم مشارکت ذی‌نفعان همان منطقه است. این مهم زمانی محقق می‌شود که نقش جوامع محلی به‌روشنی مشخص و محول شده باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification of effective factors on the implementation of forestry projects in Zagros with a future studies approach (case study: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, Iran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • A. Eskandari Shahraki 1
  • N. Yarali 2
  • B. Mahmoudi 3
  • B. Khalil moghaddam 4
1 Ph.D candidate, Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Science, Shahrekord University, Shahrekored, Iran
2 Corresponding author, Associate Prof, Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Science, Shahrekord University, Shahrekored, Iran
3 Associate Prof, Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Science, Shahrekord University, Shahrekored, Iran
4 Insturctor, Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad Universiy-Shahrekord Branch, Shahrekored, Iran
چکیده [English]

Background and objectives: Future studies, an essential knowledge domain, can aid in creating a better future for ourselves and our society. This study investigates the factors affecting forestry projects in central Zagros, Iran, using a Future Studies Approach. This applied research utilizes analytical approaches and exploratory techniques over a 25-year horizon.
Methodology: This research was conducted in the central Zagros forests, specifically in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. The data collection method employed in this research encompassed document analysis and questionnaire implementation. Initially, documents and guidelines for monitoring and evaluating natural resource management plans were utilized to collect the required information. Subsequently, a set of factors affecting the implementation of forestry projects were identified. From these factors (68 in total), 18 effective factors were selected through interviews with forest experts (academics and practitioners) and input into the MicMac software as a matrix of reciprocal effects. This was done by 15 experts with over 10 years of experience in implementing forestry projects in the central Zagros. These experts included those from the Department of Natural Resources and Watershed Management of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, the Office of Forests Outside the North in the Organization of Natural Resources and Watershed Management of Iran, and professors from the Department of Forestry at Shahrekord University. They were selected by targeted sampling. The degree of relationship between the variables, based on influence and effectiveness, was scored from zero to three. The scores were then averaged and entered into the MikMak software as a cross-impact matrix.
Results: The results obtained showed a matrix density of 89.19%, indicating that the selected variables had a significant and diverse impact on each other, resulting in an unstable system. Out of a total of 324 relationships, 35 had zero influence, showing no cross-impact between the variables. There were 82 relationships with low impact, 132 with medium impact, and 75 with high impact. The matrix analysis of direct influence revealed that the coordination of officials with local people and the use of pioneer species were among the regulatory variables. Factors such as restoration, breeding operations, understory agriculture, grazing, and identification of local users were among the independent variables. The selected effective factors were categorized into four components: economic, social, forestry, and management. Based on the analysis of direct effects, factors such as income, livelihood, employment, public protection, public trust in officials, use of non-wood forest products, empowerment of local communities, participation of local communities, provisioning services, and regional development were identified as effective factors in the implementation of forestry projects. Based on the analysis of indirect influences, the participation factor had a very strong effect on development and people’s trust in officials. The local people’s participation factor had a strong effect on empowerment, and the development factor had a strong effect on livelihood.
Conclusion: The most significant problems in the forestry projects of Zagros are socio-economic issues, primarily because the implementation of these projects has not yielded economic benefits for the forest dwellers. The success or failure of activities related to the implementation of the forestry plan in any region depends on the economic level of local communities, their level of trust in officials, and the participation or non-participation of stakeholders in the same region. This is achieved when the role of local communities is clearly defined and assigned.
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cross impact matrix
  • interview
  • MicMac
  • people's participation
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