پیش‌نگری روند خشک‌سالی در زاگرس مرکزی با استفاده از شاخص‌استاندارد شده بارش و تبخیر تعرق

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم زیستی جنگل، گروه جنگلداری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 نویسنده مسئول، استاد، گروه جنگلداری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه علوم و صنایع چوب و کاغذ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران

4 استاد، گروه علوم و صنایع چوب و کاغذ، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

5 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

6 استاد، گروه علوم منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تامسون ریورز، کملوپس، کانادا

چکیده

خشک‌سالی، پیامدهای منفی بر پوشش گیاهی و تسریع روند کاهش آن دارد. در سطح جهانی، فراوانی و بزرگی خشک‌سالی به دلایل طبیعی و نیز انسانی در حال افزایش است. این پژوهش با هدف بررسی روند و شدت خشک‌سالی‌‌ها در گذشته و آینده با استفاده از شاخص‌ استانداردشده بارش و تبخیر- تعرق (SPEI) در ذخیره‌‌گاه جنگلی ارس در کیگوران از توابع استان لرستان انجام شد. با استفاده از داده‌‌های روزانه بارش و دمای ایستگاه همدیدی الیگودرز طی دوره آماری 33 ساله (2019-1987) شاخص SPEI محاسبه شد. سپس، فراوانی و شدت خشک‌سالی‌‌ها در مقیاس‌‌های زمانی سه، شش، نُه و 12 ماهه برای دوره‌های پایه (2019-1987) و آینده (2060-2030) با استفاده از مدل NorESM2-LM و تحت سناریوهای SSP126، SSP370 و SSP585 محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد که در گذشته، طولانی‌‌ترین دوره‌‌های خشک‌سالی در سال‌‌های 1990 تا 1991، 1998 تا 2000 و 2010 تا 2012 رخ داده است. همچنین، شدیدترین خشک‌سالی‌‌ها برای سال‌‌های 2003، 2013، 2017 و 2018 ثبت شد. براساس یافته‌‌ها، تعداد دوره‌‌های خشک‌سالی در آینده (2060-2030) تحت سناریوهای SSP126 و SSP585 (شش، نُه و 12 ماهه) کاهش و تحت سناریوی SSP370 (سه، نُه و 12 ماهه) افزایش خواهند یافت. به‌رغم پیش‌بینی کاهش فراوانی خشک‌سالی‌‌ها براساس شاخص SPEI در آینده، شدت و مدت خشک‌سالی‌‌های بسیار شدید افزایش خواهند یافت، بنابراین رویشگاه مورد مطالعه، خشک‌سالی‌‌های شدیدتری را در آینده تجربه خواهد کرد که تأثیر قابل‌توجهی بر زادآوری درختان ارس خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of future drought in the Keygooran Juniper forest reserve of Iran using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)

نویسندگان [English]

  • S. Beiranvand 1
  • P. Attarod 2
  • V. Bayramzadeh 3
  • K. Pourtahmasi 4
  • M. Nadi 5
  • Th. G. Pypker 6
1 Ph.D. Student of Forest Biology, Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 Corresponding author, Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Associate Prof., Department of Wood Science and Technology, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran
4 Prof., Department of Wood & Paper Science and Technology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
5 Assistance Prof., Department of Irrigation, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
6 Prof., Department of Natural Resource Sciences, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, Canada
چکیده [English]

Drought is a major threat to vegetation and can cause its decline. Due to natural and human factors, droughts are becoming more frequent and intense around the world. This research examines the trend and severity of droughts in the past and future using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for a Juniper forest reserve in Keygooran, Lorestan Province, Iran. The SPEI index was calculated using daily precipitation and temperature data from the Aligudarz synoptic station for a 33-year period (1987-2019). The frequency and severity of droughts were assessed for the recent past (1987-2019) and the future (2030-2060) using the NorESM2-LM model under the SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. The results showed that the longest droughts occurred in 1990-1991, 1998-2000 and 2010-2012. Moreover, 2003, 2013, 2017 and 2018 were the years with the most severe droughts. In the future (2030-2060), drought periods will be projected to decrease under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios (6, 9 and 12 months) and increase under the SSP370 scenario (3, 9 and 12 months). The intensity and duration of extremely severe droughts will be projected to increase in the future despite the decrease in drought frequency based on SPEI. Therefore, the Juniper forest reserve will face more severe droughts in the future, which will affect the reproduction of juniper trees significantly.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • juniper
  • scenario
  • SPEI

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