تبیین مدل‌های محاسباتی و بهینه زی‌توده تنه ممرز (Carpinus betulus L.) با استفاده از معادلات آلومتریک در جنگل‌های هیر‌کانی

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسنده

دکتری جنگلداری، دانشگاه آزاد واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران

چکیده

برآورد هرچه دقیق‌تر زی‌توده در جنگل‌های طبیعی در رابطه با انتشار کربن اتمسفری گامی مؤثر به‌‌منظور اجماع سیاست‌های جهانی برای مواجهه با پدیده گرمایش زمین و تغییرات اقلیم است. ازاین‌رو پژوهش پیش‌رو با مدل‌سازی معادلات آلومتریک کاربردی در پی افزایش دقت اندازه‌گیری زی‌توده تنه ممرز به‌عنوان فراوانترین گونه درختی جنگل‌های هیرکانی در شمال ایران است. برای مدل‌سازی از سه متغیر قطر برابرسینه، ارتفاع تنه و سن به‌عنوان متغیر مستقل در مدل‌های غیرخطی (توانی و نمایی) و به‌صورت ترکیبی در مدل‌های خطی لگاریتمی تغییرشکل‌یافته استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که درمیان مدل‌های غیرخطی، به‌ترتیب مدل توانی و نمایی برحسب قطر برابرسینه دارای بهترین برازش و بیشترین دقت محاسباتی بودند (51/0- 53/0 = SEE ; 75/0- 72/0 = R2adj). در بین کلیه متغیرهای ترکیبی، مربع قطر برابرسینه و ارتفاع تنه (dbh2 × h) به‌عنوان بهترین ترکیب با بیشترین همبستگی با مشاهدات، معرفی شد و ازمیان کلیه مدل‌های خطی مذکور، مدل لگاریتمی برحسب ترکیب ذکرشده دارای بیشترین دقت برآوردی (48/0= SEE ; 77/0= R2adj) و مناسبترین برازش بود. باتوجه به فاکتور تورم واریانس محاسباتی (10> VIF)، ارائه مدل‌های خطی چندمتغیره از لحاظ آماری معنی‌دار نبود. درنهایت باتوجه به حداقل ضریب تصحیح محاسبه‌شده در این تحقیق (11/1 = CF)، خطای سیستماتیک ناشی از کاهش محاسباتی جبران شده و مدل آلومتری بهینه برای محاسبه زی‌توده تنه ممرز [ ( ln(dbh2 × h 007/1 + 47/3 - ]Exp = Y معرفی شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimal allometric biomass equations for Hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.) boles within the Hyrcanian forests

نویسنده [English]

  • Ali Asghar Vahedi
Ph.D. Forestry, Department of Forest Ecology and Silviculture, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, I.R. Iran
چکیده [English]

According to the amount of carbon emitted to the atmosphere, obtaining accurate estimations of biomass is an effective step to deal with the global warming and climate change on various spatial scales. Therefore, this study pursued the aim of investigating allometric models to increase the accuracy of the dry biomass calculation for hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.), which is one of the most abundant tree species across the Hyrcanian forests of Iran. The diameter at breast height, bole height and age were used as explanatory variables in non-linear models (power and exponential functions) and as combined variables in linear, log-transformed models. The results showed that the power and exponential functions of diameter returned the best fit and highest accuracy (R2adj= 0.72-0.75; SEE = 0.53-0.51). For the entire combined variables, the squares diameter and height (dbh2 × h) was the best combination, showing the highest correlation with the observations. Subsequently, the log-transformed model containing the mentioned combined variables returned the highest estimation accuracy (R2adj= 0.77; SEE = 0.48) and best fit-goodness. Regarding the acquired variance inflation factor (VIF >10), the multiple linear models were not significant. Furthermore, the least correction factor was calculated (CF = 1.11) to correct for the model bias. Therefore, the optimal model of Y = Exp [-3.47 + 1.007 ln(dbh2 ×h) was introduced to estimate bole biomass of hornbeam.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • global warming
  • bole biomass
  • fit-goodness
  • hornbeam
  • allometric model

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