Modeling suitable habitats of Parrotia persica (DC.) C.A.Mey. in the Hyrcanian Forests using environmental factors

Document Type : Research article

Authors

1 Corresponding author, Assistant Prof., Department of Forest Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran

2 Prof., Department of Forest Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran

3 Ph.D. in Forest Soil Science, Department of Forest Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran

4 Ph.D. Student of Silviculture and Forest Ecology, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran

Abstract

 
Background and objectives: Parrotia persica (DC.) C.A. Mey., endemic to the Hyrcanian forests of Iran, has been classified as Near Threatened in the latest conservation status assessment by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Given the importance of this species in preserving genetic diversity, identifying its suitable habitat is a critical first step in the implementation of conservation and management strategies. As species distribution models are widely used for predicting and identifying suitable planting habitats, the objective of this study was to apply such models, based on machine learning algorithms and environmental variables including topography, soil, and climate, to predict suitable habitats for P. persica.
Methodology: The study was conducted across the entire Hyrcanian forest region in Iran. Forest inventory data from northern Iran were used, including coordinates, altitude, slope, aspect, diameter at breast height, species type, and tree height for each sample plot. Meteorological data (precipitation and temperature) were obtained from the NASA POWER project. Soil variables, including bulk density, sand, silt, clay percentages, pH, nitrogen content, and organic carbon, were extracted from SoilGrids 2.0. Topographic indices such as the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Topographic Position Index (TPI), and curvature were derived in a GIS environment. After compiling presence-absence data and environmental variables, five modeling algorithms were applied to predict the distribution of P. persica: Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbor, Generalized Linear Model, and Maximum Entropy. The Maximum Entropy model was implemented using the dismo package, and the other models were run using the caret package in R. Variable importance was assessed using dismotools for Maximum Entropy and caret for the remaining models. Model performance was evaluated using cross-validation, and the area under the curve (AUC) statistic was used to assess predictive accuracy.
Results: Among all models, the Random Forest algorithm had the highest AUC value (0.87), indicating the best performance. Altitude emerged as the most influential factor in predicting P. persica distribution across all models. The Random Forest and Maximum Entropy models identified soil sand percentage and precipitation, respectively, as the second most important variables. In contrast, Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbor, and Generalized Linear Models identified average air temperature as the second most important factor. Interpolated probability maps indicated a high likelihood of P. persica presence (over 70%) in low-altitude regions of the eastern and central Hyrcanian forests, while its presence was predicted to be very low in the western regions.
Conclusion: All models demonstrated acceptable accuracy in predicting P. persica distribution, with the Random Forest model outperforming the others. Altitude and temperature were the most critical variables influencing its distribution. The highest presence probability was predicted in low-altitude, central parts of the Hyrcanian forests. These findings suggest the feasibility of identifying suitable mother trees and enhancing reproduction success through targeted breeding and silvicultural practices. Additionally, relatively undisturbed areas within suitable habitats could be designated as conservation reserves for this species.
 
 

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References

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