LCM Logistic regression modelling of land-use changes in Kouhmare Sorkhi, Fars province

Document Type : Research article

Authors

1 M. Sc‏.‏‎ GIS and Remote Sensing, Faculty of Geoscience, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, I.R. Iran

2 Associate Prof., Faculty of Geoscience, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, I.R. Iran.‎

3 Senior Expert, Faculty of Geoscience, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, I.R. Iran. ‎

4 Ph. D. Student‏ ‏Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, I.R. Iran.‎

Abstract

Model-based prediction of potential land use patterns can support environmental planners and natural resource managers for more effective planning decisions. This research aimed at modeling land use change across kouhmare Sorkhi plain of Fars province by means of logistic regression. To do this, land use maps were first retrieved from multi-date Landsat imagery of 1987, 2000 and 2012. A change detection analysis was performed following the validation of classified imagery. Results of change detection between 1987 and 2000 returned a Kappa coefficient of 0.83 showed the highest increment for rangeland class (4224.24 ha). In contrast, the highest rate of decrease was observed on forest area (3953.75). Having this in mind, 10 explanatory variables were selected to model potential land use changes in 2012 by LCM logistic regression. The land use map of 2012 was modelled using a Markov chain. This resulted in a 0.74 Kappa coefficient for an error matric between the modeled and the 2000 Landsat-based land use maps. In addition, the revealed changes for the 2000-2012 period with 0.88 Kappa coefficient show a highest increment rate for rangeland class (1807.02 ha), whereas  the greatest decrease was observed for forest (2132.82 ha). In accordance to this, the land use map of 2024 was predicted, for which the irrigated agriculture would be associated with the highest rate of change.  

Keywords


- Ademola, N., Braimoh, K. and Onishi T. 2007. Spatial determinants of urban land use change in Lagos. Land Use Policy, 24: 502-515.
- Awotwi, A. 2009. Detection of land use and land cover change in Accra, Ghana, between 1985 and 2003 using Landsat imagery. M. Sc. Thesis, Division of Geoinformatics Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden.
- Babaei Agdam, F., Esmaili Ouri, A. and Heydari Sarban, V. 2011. Modeling the spatial pattern of land use of Sarein on the horizon 1400 using a model CLUE_S. Journal of Geographical Research, 26(5): 93-116 (In Persian).
- Clark, W.A. and Hosking, P.L. 1986. Statistical Methods for Geographers. John Wiley and Sons, New York, 528p.
- Conway, T.M. and Lathrop R.G.Jr. 2005. Modeling the ecological consequences of land-use policies in an urbanizing region. Environmental Management, 35:278-291.
- Costanza, R. and Ruth, M. 2004. Using dynamic modeling to scope environmental problems and build consensus. Geo-Journal, 61:309-324.
-Darvishsefat, A.A, Pir Bavaghar, M. and Rajab por Rahmati, M. 2012. Remote sensing for GIS managers (Translation). University of Tehran press, 710p.
- Eastman, J.R. 2002. Idrisi for windows, user’s guide ver. 32. Clark University, 327p.
 - Eastman, J.R. 2006. IDRISI Andes. Tutorial. Clark University, Worcester, MA.
- Salmanmahiny, A. and Kamyab, H. 2012. Applied Remote Sensing and GIS with Idrisi (Translated). Publication of Mehremahdis, 620p (In Persian).
- Eastman, J.R., Van Fossen, M.E. and Solarzano, L.A. 2012. Transition potential modeling for land cover change. In: Maguire, D., Good Child, M., Batty, M. (Eds.), GIS, Spatial Analysis and Modeling. ESRI Press, Redlands, California.
- Gholamalifard, M., Jorabiyan Shoshtary, Sh., Hosseini Kahnoj, S.H. and Mirzaei, M. 2012. Modeling of land use changes in coastal of Mazandaran province using LCM in GIS. Journal of Environmental Studies, 38(4): 124-109 (In Persian).
- Gontier, M., Mörtberg, U. and Balfors, B. 2009. Comparing GIS-based habitat models for applications in EIA and SEA. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 30(1):8-18.
- Gumeh, Z. 2012. Monitoring land use changes in Karaj and its association to landscape profiles, M. Sc. thesis, University of Shahid Chamran, Ahvaz, 128p.
- Hu, Zh. and Lo, C.P. 2007. Modeling urban growth in Atlanta using logistic regression, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 31: 667-688.
- Kamyab, H., Salman Mahini, A., Hosseini, S.M. and Gholamalifard, M. 2010. Adopt a data-driven approach using logistic regression to model urban development Gorgan. Journal of Ecology, 36: 96-89 (In Persian).
- Koomen, E., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A. and Schol ten, H.J. 2007. Modeling Land-Use Change, Progress and Applications.Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 390p.
- Laura, C., Schneider, R. and Gil Pontius Jr. 2001. Modeling land use change in the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 85: 83-94.
- Lu, D., Mausel, P., Brondizio, E. and Moran, E. 2004. Change detection techniques.  International Journal of Remote Sensing, 25(12): 2365-2401.
- McConnel, W.J., Sweeney, S.P. and Mulley, B. 2004. Physical and social access to land: spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural expansion in Madagascar. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 101: 171-184.
- Pérez-Vega, A., Mas, J.F. and Ligmann-Zielinska, A. 2012. Comparing two approaches to land use/cover change modeling and their implications for the assessment of biodiversity loss in a deciduous tropical forest. Environmental Modeling & Software, 29: 11-23.
- Pontius, R. and Malanson, J. 2005. Comparison of the structure and accuracy of two land change models. International Journal of Geographical Information Science. 19(2):243-265.
- Rabiee, H., Ziaeean, P. and Alimohammadi, A. 2004. Exploring land uses and land cover in Isfahan province using remote sensing and GIS.  Journal of geographical Research, 84:41-54 (In Persian).
- Theau, J. 2006. Detection of changes using remote sensing: an overview of principles and applications. Geo-Spatial and Range Sciences Conference. Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID, USA.
- Torrens, P.M. and Osullivan, D. 2001. Cellular automata and urban simulation: where do we go from here? Environment and Planning B, 28: 163-168.
- Václavík, T. and Rogan, J. 2009. Identifying trends in land use/land cover changes in the context of post-socialist transformation in central Europe. GIS Science and Remote Sensing, 49(1):1-32.
- Verburg, P., Schot, P., Dijst, M. and Veldkamp, A. 2004. Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. GeoJournal, 6: 309-324.
- Zareh Garizi, A., Bardi Sheikh, V., Sadodin, A. and Salman Mahini, A. 2012. Application of logistic regression to model spatial pattern of vegetation change (Case study: Chehel Chai basin, Golestan province). Journal of Geographical Research, 37: 55-68 (In Persian).