Identification of effective factors on the implementation of forestry projects in Zagros with a future studies approach (case study: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, Iran)

Background and objectives: Future studies, an essential knowledge domain, can aid in creating a better future for ourselves and our society. This study investigates the factors affecting forestry projects in central Zagros, Iran, using a Future Studies Approach. This applied research utilizes analytical approaches and exploratory techniques over a 25-year horizon.
Methodology: This research was conducted in the central Zagros forests, specifically in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. The data collection method employed in this research encompassed document analysis and questionnaire implementation. Initially, documents and guidelines for monitoring and evaluating natural resource management plans were utilized to collect the required information. Subsequently, a set of factors affecting the implementation of forestry projects were identified. From these factors (68 in total), 18 effective factors were selected through interviews with forest experts (academics and practitioners) and input into the MicMac software as a matrix of reciprocal effects. This was done by 15 experts with over 10 years of experience in implementing forestry projects in the central Zagros. These experts included those from the Department of Natural Resources and Watershed Management of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, the Office of Forests Outside the North in the Organization of Natural Resources and Watershed Management of Iran, and professors from the Department of Forestry at Shahrekord University. They were selected by targeted sampling. The degree of relationship between the variables, based on influence and effectiveness, was scored from zero to three. The scores were then averaged and entered into the MikMak software as a cross-impact matrix.
Results: The results obtained showed a matrix density of 89.19%, indicating that the selected variables had a significant and diverse impact on each other, resulting in an unstable system. Out of a total of 324 relationships, 35 had zero influence, showing no cross-impact between the variables. There were 82 relationships with low impact, 132 with medium impact, and 75 with high impact. The matrix analysis of direct influence revealed that the coordination of officials with local people and the use of pioneer species were among the regulatory variables. Factors such as restoration, breeding operations, understory agriculture, grazing, and identification of local users were among the independent variables. The selected effective factors were categorized into four components: economic, social, forestry, and management. Based on the analysis of direct effects, factors such as income, livelihood, employment, public protection, public trust in officials, use of non-wood forest products, empowerment of local communities, participation of local communities, provisioning services, and regional development were identified as effective factors in the implementation of forestry projects. Based on the analysis of indirect influences, the participation factor had a very strong effect on development and people’s trust in officials. The local people’s participation factor had a strong effect on empowerment, and the development factor had a strong effect on livelihood.
Conclusion: The most significant problems in the forestry projects of Zagros are socio-economic issues, primarily because the implementation of these projects has not yielded economic benefits for the forest dwellers. The success or failure of activities related to the implementation of the forestry plan in any region depends on the economic level of local communities, their level of trust in officials, and the participation or non-participation of stakeholders in the same region. This is achieved when the role of local communities is clearly defined and assigned.