Assessing the probability of land-use change in the southern Alborz slopes (Case study: Kan watershed of the Tehran Province, Iran)

Document Type : Research article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Graduate of Forestry, Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Corresponding author, Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

3 Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

4 Associate Prof., Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

5 Associate Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

Abstract

The northern mountains of Tehran are amongst the most valuable natural ecosystems in Iran, which have been destroyed in recent decades due to improper use of land and land-use changes. Therefore, studies on the land-use changes via spatial occurrence probability maps are necessary to deal with this phenomenon. In the present study land use/land cover of 2000 and 2017 were mapped using Landsat satellite images by supervised classification method and maximum likelihood algorithm for the Kan watershed in the Tehran Province. In order to determine the most important factors affecting land-use change as well as zoning the probability of changes, digital data of biophysical (nine variables) and human (four variables) factors were analyzed in the GIS. Finally, the map of probability of land-use changes was produced by applying logistic regression. Validation of the model was performed using relative operating characteristic, which indicated the high ability of the model to describe the changes and determine the areas prone to changes. The results showed that about 60% of the Kan watershed is classified as highly prone to land-use changes. In those areas, variables such as elevation, aspect, slope, soil depth, average growing season precipitation, and average growing season temperature were identified as the most important factors affecting the land-use changes. Conclusively, the results of this research indicated significant land use/cover changes in the studied area during the recent years, as well as a high occurrence probability of future land-use changes.

Keywords


- Akingbogun, A.A., Kosoko, O.S.O.A. and Aborisade, D.K., 2012. Remote sensing and GIS application for forest reserve degradation prediction and monitoring. First FIG Young Surveyors Conference: Knowing to Create the Future. Rome, Italy, 4-5 May 2012: 27p.
- Amini, M.R., Shataee Joybari, Sh., Moayeri, M.H. and Ghazanfari, H., 2008. Deforestation modeling and investigation on related physiographic and human factors using satellite images and GIS (Case study: Armerdeh forests of Baneh). Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 16(3): 431-443 (In Persian).
- Anonymous, 1999. Executive detailed research plan of Kan watershed of Tehran. Published by Jahad Engineering Services Company, Tehran, 31p (In Persian).
- Anonymous, 2008. The comprehensive plan for the conservation and restoration of natural resources of northern Tehran and Shemiranat. Published by Water and Energy Research Institute, Ministry of Energy, Tehran, 252p (In Persian).
- Aspinall, R., 2004. Modelling land-use change with generalized linear models—a multi-model analysis of change between 1860 and 2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana. Journal of Environmental Management, 72(1-2): 91-103.
- Bagheri, R. and Shataee, Sh., 2010. Modeling forest areas decreases using logistic regression (case study: Chehl-Chay catchment, Golestan province). Iranian Journal of Forest, 2(3): 243-252 (In Persian).
- Bansal, S., Srivastav, S.K., Roy, P.S. and Krishnamurthy, Y.V.N., 2016. An analysis of land use and land cover dynamics and causative drivers in a thickly populated Yamuna river basin of India. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 14(3): 773-779.
- Esmaeilzadeh, H. and Shafiee Sabet, N., 2013. Investigation of land use change and instability in the ecosystem of northern Iran (Case study: Darakeh-Velenjak watershed). Researches in Earth Science, 4(3): 83-102 (In Persian).
- Hosseinzadeh, M.M., Derafshi, Kh. and Mirbagheri, B., 2013. Modeling forest extent change and its influencing factors, using the logistic regression model in a GIS environment (Case study: Vaz and Lavij basins). Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 21(1): 86-98 (In Persian).
- Keshtkar, H., Voigt, W. and Alizadeh, E., 2017. Land-cover classification and analysis of change using machine-learning classifiers and multi-temporal remote sensing imagery. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 10(6): 154.
- Kim, I., Le, Q.B., Park, S.J., Tenhunen, J. and Koellner, T., 2014. Driving forces in archetypical land-use changes in a mountainous watershed in East Asia. Land, 3(3): 957-980.
- Kiyani, V., Alizade Shaabani; A. and Nazari Samani, A., 2014. Assessing the classification accuracy of LISS-III sensor image of IRS-P6 satellite using Google Earth's database to provide land coverage/ land use maps (Case study: Taleghan watershed). Scientific-Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR), 23(90): 51-59 (In Persian).
- Masrouri, E., Shataei, Sh., Moayeri, M.H., Soosani, J. and Bagheri, R., 2015. Modeling of forest degradation extend using physiographic and socio-economic variables (Case study: A part of Kaka-Reza district in Khoram-Abad). Ecology of Iranian Forests, 3(5): 20-30 (In Persian).
- Mondal, I., Srivastava, V.K., Roy, P.S. and Talukdar, G., 2014. Using logit model to identify the drivers of landuse land cover change in the Lower Gangetic basin, India. The International Archives of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, XL-8: 853-859.
- Oghnoum, M., 2018. Designing a sustainable afforestation model for semi-arid areas in Iran (Case study: Kan watershed of Tehran province). Ph.D. thesis, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, 127p (In Persian).
- Pirbavaghar, M., Darvishsefat, A. and Namiranian, M., 2003. The spatial of distribution of changes in the northern forests of Iran. International Conference of Map Asia 2003. Kualalampour, 13-15 Oct. 2003: 14p.
- Pontius, R.G. and Schneider L.C., 2001. Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method
for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 85(1):239-248.
- Ravanbakhsh, H., Marvi Mohajer, M.R., Zahedi, Gh. and Shirvani, A., 2010. Forest typology in relation with altitude gradient on southern slopes of central Alborz Mountains (Latian Dam Watershed). Journal of Forest and Wood Products (Iranian Journal of Natural Resources), 64(1): 9-22 (In Persian).
- Sheikh Goodarzi, M., Alizadeh Shabani, A., Salman Mahini, A. and Feghhi, J., 2012. Landscape ecological metrics-based investigation of land cover/use changes in Korganrud watershed. Journal of Natural Environmental (Iranian Journal of Natural Resources), 64(4): 431-441(In Persian).
- Vafaei, S., Darvishsefat, A.A. and Pir Bavaghar, M., 2013. Monitoring and predicting land use changes using LCM module (Case study: Marivan region). Iranian Journal of Forest, 5(3): 323-336 (In Persian).
- Verburg, P., 2010. The CLUE modeling framework, Hands-on Exercises. Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Amsterdam, 53p.
- Zare Garizi, A., Bardi Sheikh, V., Saededdin, A. and Salman Mahini, A., 2012. Modeling the spatial pattern of land-cover change, using logistic regression (case study: Chehlchay watershed, Golestan province). Journal of Geographical Space, 12(37): 55-68 (In Persian).
- Zhang, Z., van Coillie, F., Ou, X. and de Wulf, R., 2014. Integration of satellite imagery, topography and human disturbance factors based on canonical correspondence analysis ordination for mountain vegetation mapping: a case study in Yunnan, China. Remote Sensing, 6(2): 1026-1056.
- Zhao, X., Pu, J., Wang, X., Chen, J., Yang, L.E. and Gu, Z., 2018. Land-use spatio-temporal change and its driving factors in an artificial forest area in southwest China. Sustainability, 10(11): 4066.
-Wilson, K., Newton, A., Echeverria, C., Weston, CH. and Burgman, M., 2005. A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile. Biological Conservation, 122(1): 9-21.