Assessing the probability of land-use change in the southern Alborz slopes (Case study: Kan watershed of the Tehran Province, Iran)

Document Type : Research article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Graduate of Forestry, Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Corresponding author, Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

3 Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

4 Associate Prof., Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

5 Associate Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

Abstract

The northern mountains of Tehran are amongst the most valuable natural ecosystems in Iran, which have been destroyed in recent decades due to improper use of land and land-use changes. Therefore, studies on the land-use changes via spatial occurrence probability maps are necessary to deal with this phenomenon. In the present study land use/land cover of 2000 and 2017 were mapped using Landsat satellite images by supervised classification method and maximum likelihood algorithm for the Kan watershed in the Tehran Province. In order to determine the most important factors affecting land-use change as well as zoning the probability of changes, digital data of biophysical (nine variables) and human (four variables) factors were analyzed in the GIS. Finally, the map of probability of land-use changes was produced by applying logistic regression. Validation of the model was performed using relative operating characteristic, which indicated the high ability of the model to describe the changes and determine the areas prone to changes. The results showed that about 60% of the Kan watershed is classified as highly prone to land-use changes. In those areas, variables such as elevation, aspect, slope, soil depth, average growing season precipitation, and average growing season temperature were identified as the most important factors affecting the land-use changes. Conclusively, the results of this research indicated significant land use/cover changes in the studied area during the recent years, as well as a high occurrence probability of future land-use changes.

Keywords

References

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Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research
Volume 27, Issue 3 - Serial Number 77
December 2019
Pages 322-334

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