پهنه‌بندی خطر آتش‌سوزی جنگل با استفاده از روش ترکیبی نسبت فراوانی- انتروپی شانون

نوع مقاله: علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری جنگل‌داری، باشگاه پژوهشگران جوان و نخبگان، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه جنگل‌داری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

چکیده

پژوهش پیش‌­رو به بررسی قابلیت روش­ نسبت فراوانی و ترکیبی از این روش با  انتروپی شانون در تهیه نقشه حساسیت آتش‌سوزی در استان چهارمحال و بختیاری می­‌پردازد. در ابتدا مناطق آتش­‌سوزی گذشته در این استان بر مبنای اطلاعات موجود و عملیات میدانی شناسایی شدند. از 132 آتش­‌سوزی شناسایی‌شده، به‌طور تصادفی 92 مورد (70%) برای فرآیند مد­­ل­سازی و 40 مورد (30%) باقیمانده برای اعتبارسنجی درنظر گرفته شد. بر اساس اطلاعات موجود در منطقه مورد مطالعه، 13 عامل مرتبط با خصوصیات توپوگرافی، اقلیمی و انسانی به‌عنوان عامل‌های مؤثر بر وقوع آتش­‌سوزی درنظر گرفته شد. با استفاده از مدل نسبت فراوانی و مدل ترکیبی ارتباط بین نقاط آتش­‌سوزی و عامل‌های مؤثر بررسی شد. نتایج مدل­‌ها مبنای ساخت نقشه‌‏های پتانسیل خطر آتش­سوزی قرار گرفت. نتایج ارزیابی که با استفاده از روش مشخصه عملکرد سیستم (ROC) و سطح زیر منحنی (AUC) انجام شد، نشان داد که مدل ترکیبی با قابلیت محاسبه میزان اهمیت عامل‌ها و همچنین هر یک از طبقات آنها، کارایی بهتری در تهیه نقشه پتانسیل خطر آتش‌سوزی دارد. نرخ موفقیت و پیش‌‏بینی برای مدل نسبت فراوانی و مدل ترکیبی به‌ترتیب 79/02 و 75/72 درصد و 85/16 و 82/91 درصد محاسبه شد. بر اساس نتایج، بیشتر از یک‏‌سوم مساحت استان چهارمحال و بختیاری در طبقات خطر زیاد تا خیلی زیاد آتش­‌سوزی قرار می‌گیرند که در این میان، عامل‌های کاربری اراضی، نوع خاک و فاصله از جاده دارای بیشترین اهمیت هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Wildfire hazard mapping using an ensemble method of frequency ratio with Shannon’s entropy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolfazl Jaafari 1
  • Davoud Mafi Gholami 2
1 Ph.D. Forestry, Young Researchers and Elite Club, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran
2 Assistant Prof., Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Science, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study investigates the capability of frequency ratio and an ensemble method of frequency ratio with Shannon’s entropy to produce a reliable map of wildfire susceptibility for Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran. At first, the fire locations were identified in the study area from historical archives and field surveys. Ninety two cases (70%) out of 132 detected fire locations were randomly selected for modeling, and the remaining 40 (30 %) cases were used for the validation. Thirteen fire conditioning factors representing topography, climate, and human activities of the study area were extracted from the spatial database. Using the frequency ratio and the ensemble model, the relationship between the conditioning factors and fire locations were explored. The results were then used to produce distribution maps of wildfire hazard. The verification analysis using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Areas Under the Curve (AUC) revealed that the ensemble model with the capability of computing the weights of factors and their categories is more efficient than frequency ratio. The success and prediction rates for the frequency ratio and ensemble model were found to be 79.2 and 75.72%, and 85.16 and 82.92%, respectively. Further, the results suggest that more than one-third of the study area falls into the high and very high hazard classes, and the conditioning factors of land use, soil types, and distance from roads play major roles in fire occurrence and distribution in the study area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari
  • GIS
  • modeling
  • Zagros forests
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