تهیه نقشه خشکیدگی بلوط ایرانی (Quercus brantii Lindl.) با استفاده از روش زمین‌آمار در دشت ‌برم استان فارس

نوع مقاله : علمی- پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جنگل‌داری، دانشکده منابع ‌طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

2 استاد، گروه جنگل‌داری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبیعی

چکیده

این پژوهش به‌منظور تهیه نقشه خشکیدگی بلوط ایرانی (Quercus brantii Lindl.)، تجزیه ‌و تحلیل و تشریح پراکنش مکانی درختان و توده‌های خشکیده بلوط با استفاده از روش زمین‌آمار و رسم نقشه‌های پهنه‌بندی خشکیدگی، احتمال و خطا در منطقه دشت‌برم استان فارس انجام شد. داده‌ها در قطعه‌نمونه‌هایی مستطیلی‌شکل به‌ مساحت 1200 متر مربع (40×30 متر) براساس شبکه‌ای به ابعاد 500×500 متر با روش منظم- تصادفی جمع‌آوری شد. واریوگرام‌های تجربی ناهمسان‌گرد با استفاده از روش‌های مختلف زمین‌آماری رسم شد. نتایج ارزیابی متقابل نشان داد که روش کریجینگ معمولی با مدل کروی بهترین برازش را به داده‌ها داشت. نقشه خشکیدگی در طبقه‌های کمتر از 10، 10 تا 25، 25 تا 60 و بیشتر از60 درصد ترسیم شد. بیشترین سطح به طبقه 25 تا 60 درصد با 3827 هکتار و کمترین سطح به طبقه کمتر از 10 درصد با 260 هکتار تعلق داشت. در نقشه احتمال خشکیدگی مشاهده شد که احتمال این‌که خشکیدگی بیشتر از 60 درصد باشد، در بیشتر سطح در محدوده کمتر از 25 درصد بود و در سطح کمی از محدوده بین 50 تا 75 درصد واقع شده بود. پژوهش پیش‌رو نشان داد که با استفاده از زمین‌آمار (کریجینگ) می‌توان تغییرات مکانی، خطای برآورد و احتمال پیش‌بینی خشکیدگی درختان بلوط زاگرس را در قالب نقشه ارایه داد و کانون‌های خشکیدگی (آفت و بیماری) را شناسایی کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Mapping Brant's oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) mortality using geostatistical methods in Dasht-e Barm, Fars province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahram Ahmadi 1
  • Ghavamoddin Zahedi Amiri 2
  • Mohammad Reza Marvie Mohadjer 2
1 Ph.D. Student Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran
2 Prof., Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

This research was conducted to study the spatial distribution of Brant's oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) mortality using geostatistical prediction and mapping approaches in Dashte-e Barm, Fars province. Field sampling was performed based on a 500m×500m systematic random grid and 1200 m2 rectangular forest plots. Different geostatistical methods were used for plotting anisotropic empirical semivariogram and surface creation. Results of cross validation showed that ordinary kriging with spherical model achieved superior results. The models were used for wall-to-wall prediction maps with four classes, including <10%, 10-25%, 25-60% and >60% mortality. The 25-60%, mortality class occupied the largest area (3827 ha), whereas the <10% class covered the smallest portion of the study area (260 ha). In addition, the probability of mortality was spatially mapped, in which the probability of > 60% tree mortality across the entire study site was shown to be less than 25%. This research concluded that Geostatistical kriging methods could be applied to predict and map missing tree mortality values in forest stands. Our analysis suggests that these methods can be used to generate prediction and probability maps in zagros oak stands for overarching goals such as forest mortality, pest and disease managements.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Geostatistic
  • mortality
  • Oak
  • Spatial variation
  • Zagros

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